Report: U.S. EV Population Will Top at Least 5 Million by 2035

Posted: April 24, 2013 at 1:20 amThe number of electrically powered light-duty vehicles on U.S. roads will surpass 5.3 million units by 2035—and could reach six times that volume with the help of cheaper and more powerful batteries.So says a 26-page white paper released this week by IEE, an institute of the Edison Foundation, which is a non-profit group dedicated to promoting the use of electricity.The analysis considers three scenarios.

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Posted: April 24, 2013 at 1:20 am

The number of electrically powered light-duty vehicles on U.S. roads will surpass 5.3 million units by 2035—and could reach six times that volume with the help of cheaper and more powerful batteries.

So says a 26-page white paper released this week by IEE, an institute of the Edison Foundation, which is a non-profit group dedicated to promoting the use of electricity.

The analysis considers three scenarios. The most conservative forecast is based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2012 annual energy outlook. It estimates that EVs will account for only 2% of all registered light-duty vehicles in America by 2035.

The medium scenario assumes significant improvements in battery power and cost over the next 22 years. Those advances would push EV registrations to 24.8 million units, or 10% of the country’s on-road fleet.

The most optimistic projection combines those battery advances with a steady increase in petroleum prices to $200 per barrel—more than twice the current price—by 2035. Under those conditions, the analysis says, EVs would account for 12% of the U.S. fleet, or 30.4 million units.

The study estimates electricity demand associated with the three scenarios would be 13 terawatt-hours, 67 TWh and 88 TWh, respectively.