Energy Use in the Future

Gary S. Vasilash

Seems like the energy-consumption picture is one of those that can be characterized as: “On the one hand. . .but on the other hand. . . .”

At least that’s the sense from the Energy Information Agency’s Annual Energy Outlook 2014 report.

In the study, transportation energy consumption—that’s for light-duty vehicles, heavy-duty vehicles, aircraft, marine vessels, rail, and other (e.g., military transportation).

EIASource: EIA 

Back in 2007, the U.S. consumption was 14.6-million barrels per day oil equivalent (boe/d).

In 2012 that number was down to 13.8-million boe/d.

Of that 2012 figure, light-duty vehicles accounted for 63% of all transportation consumption. The EIA estimates, however, that by 2040 that will drop to 51%.

That’s the one hand.

Here’s the other:

The EIA has calculated that heavy-duty vehicle consumption was 18% in 2012, but it will rise to 28% by 2040.

(The total boe/d in 2040: 13.1-million.)

Perhaps the difference will be that there will be fewer miles put on cars because people will be buying a large percentage of their stuff from Amazon, which will be trucked to their abodes, thereby increasing the fuel necessary for the heavy-duty trucks.

Perhaps.  (They may have the drones ready by then.)